Seven Oaks, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

189
FXUS62 KCAE 140919
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
519 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues with some shower and thunderstorm
chances through Wednesday. An isolated storm on the stronger
side cannot be ruled out but widespread severe weather is not
expected and any rainfall should tend to be lighter than what
was seen the past couple days. Conditions begin to dry out to
end the week, with much warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperature moderation expected to continue today
- Isolated strong thunderstorms possible this evening

Shortwave in the base of the lifting trough has rotated south
and eastward across the southern Appalachians, pushing robust
forcing towards the region. Convection has rapidly developed
across northern Georgia as a result. A recent ACARS sounding
from ATL reveals an atmosphere that is much more unstable than
is being modeled currently. Expecting the convection to continue
developing and translating eastward through the morning hours,
largely impacting the northern half of the forecast area. Have
updated PoPs as such. While this activity may weaken by mid-
morning, it should provide an impetus for convection to
redevelop across the eastern forecast area by late morning or
early afternoon. The rest of the forecast remains largely
unchanged.

Previous discussion:

As we get into you Wednesday, the weather is generally expected to
remain quieter than it has been of late, with some caveats. The
closed low will continue to shift northeastward, with guidance
opening it to an open wave as it does so. The axis of said trough
will be to our northeast through the day, allowing mid and upper
level flow to shift out of the northwest. Southwesterly flow is
expected in the low-levels, creating warm advection profiles in the
atmosphere. So for starters, expecting further moderation of temps
into the mid 80s for most this afternoon. The setup by this evening
is an interesting one, as we`ll likely have a fairly good shear and
thermodynamic profile for severe storms across the area. A stronger
area of 500 hPa winds are forecast to push in as the trough axis
moves further away, which should yield ~30-40 knots of 6km shear by
this evening. With coolish mid-level temperatures and really robust
low-level moisture (HRRR indicating ~12c 850 hPa Td & surface mixing
ratios of 12-13 g/kg), SBCAPE of 1500-2000 j/kg is not out of the
question, with some hi-res guidance indicating more.

However, it is unclear how convection is going to get going this
afternoon. There is some indication amongst global models that
showers/storms may get going early in the day in the eastern FA but
this will likely miss the best environment that sets up this
evening. WV imagery indicates that maybe a weak shortwave may be
shifting eastward from the Ozarks and towards the southern
Appalachians by this evening. There has been some moisture increase
in low-level WV in eastern OK/western AR over the last couple of
hours, and this is explicitly what the HRRR and RRFS show pushing
east this evening. The HRRR is pretty aggressive with convective
development in the upstate, which would be a problem given the
aforementioned environment. There is some skepticism about this,
though, as forecast soundings indicate a couple of locations of
subsidence around 500 hPa & again around 800 hPa. With heights
rising behind the departing trough, this seems reasonable and should
help limit overall coverage of convection this afternoon. But with
an uncapped environment & plenty of CAPE/Shear, if a storm does get
going, it could easily become severe, with wind/hail as the primary
threats. SPC has placed parts of the area in a Marginal Risk today,
which is apt considering the highish ceiling/low floor this setup
contains. Overnight, the remnants of the convection are expected to
slowly diminish, impacting (primarily) the northern FA if they do
develop. Lows will likely be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Warmer and dry to round out the work week.

The pattern is progged to feature upper ridging over the area late
this week, keeping the storm track to our north. Moisture levels
remain steady with PWATS around 1.3"-1.5" while surface high
pressure strengthens off to our south. While there isn`t much of a
lifting mechanism for convective development, scattered cumulus will
likely develop in the afternoon with the expected strong heating.
Daytime temperatures will jump into the upper 80s by Thursday and
low to mid 90s by Friday. With plenty of humidity in the air, expect
heat index values to peak around 90 degrees Thursday and in the
upper 90s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Hot and humid conditions continuing into the upcoming weekend.

- Diurnally driven shower and thunderstorms chances each day.

A few midlevel shortwaves should move through with mainly zonal flow
aloft this weekend before stronger ridging moves overhead early next
week. This should result in above normal temperatures across our
forecast area through the period. A weak cold front is expected to
move through the area Saturday night into Sunday, potentially
stalling near/over the region. This boundary could serve as a
lifting mechanism for daily shower and thunderstorm chances.
Additionally, better dynamics should be in place Saturday afternoon
ahead of the front, with ample SBCAPE even some shear which could
aid in storm organization. CSU probabilistic forecasts show a large
area of "slight" severe weather risk extending across the deep south
to the eastern seaboard on Saturday, so its definitely something
we`ll be watching. There is then a little ambiguity in expected
conditions leading to some additional forecast uncertainty, so stuck
close with the NBM forecast which is calling for some diurnally
driven slight chance PoPs early next week. Temperatures however
should remain above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s with mild
overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the
TAF period.

Did a pretty robust amendment to the TAFs at AGS/DNL/CAE/CUB at
09z, so figured I would update the discussion. Guidance has
been, to say the least, horrible with the convective evolution
over northern Georgia and South Carolina tonight. Convection has
quickly developed over northern Georgia and is expected to
translate eastward near the TAF sites over the coming hours.
ACARS soundings from ATL reveal a much more unstable environment
than is being modeled, which is confirmed by the robust
convective development. Confidence is not quite high enough
right now that these will impact the TAF sites at any specific
time to introduce a predominant group but have introduced
PROB30s for thunderstorms at the Augusta and Columbia terminals.
The rest of the forecast remains relatively unchanged.
Expectation is that potential thunderstorms will develop again
this afternoon and evening but they are more likely to be
isolated given weaker forcing. As such, no mention in the TAFs
just yet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances finally decrease late
Wednesday with a return to fairly typical summer cu and an
isolated afternoon storm Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent heavy rainfall has produced widespread amounts of 3
inches over the past 5 days, with amounts of up to 6-7 inches in
some locations. River flooding continues across the area as a
result, with the Congaree at Eastman and Gadsen in flood, the
Saluda River at Chappells in flood, and the Edisto at Orangeburg
in flood. Rivers are generally expected to peak today or
tomorrow before slowly falling back below flood stage late this
week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
HYDROLOGY...